Future cost of onshore wind - Recent auction results, long-term outlook and implications for upcoming German auctions

Published 2017 / 04
Summary 1. Wind power costs are coming down, as auction results around the world show: in Morocco, Peru and Mexico, average winning bids ranged between 2.7 and 3.4 EUR ct/kWh in 2015/2016. This funda- mental cost reduction trend is projected to continue. 2. The larger wind turbines are, the cheaper they produce electricity. The size of windmills is expected to be the major driver of future cost reductions, as costs for increasing turbine size grow at lower rates than the benefits. The limits to onshore turbine growth are most likely not of a technological nature but rather a question of local political consent. 3. In Germany, projects at excellent wind sites can be built with only slightly higher generation costs than the most cost efficient auction-winning projects throughout the world. The levelized cost of electricity at those sites ranges between 3 and 4.5 ct/kWh for turbines of the latest generation. Major potentials to further improve cost efficiency are reducing land and maintenance costs, which are far higher than the international average.
Keywords wind, onshore, costs, long-term, outlook, auction,
File name Agora_Energiewende_201704_Future_Cost_of_Onshore_Wind.pdf